Expert analysis and selections for all four days of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

With the 2026 Cheltenham Festival just eight days away, it’s time to take stock and consider what might be the best bets of the meeting, even allowing for the fact that we are uncertain of what ground conditions the British and Irish stars will face from March 10-13, writes Paul Alster.

DAY ONE – Tuesday March 10th

I laid it on the line in my article of February 4 that the best value for the Unibet Champion Hurdle on the opening day of the Festival could well be PONIROS, available at that time at 16/1. The Willie Mullins-trained gelding is now a top priced 10/1 shot. Above him in the betting is the likely favourite, the Dan Skelton-trained The New Lion (9/4), followed by the three mares – Lossiemouth (11/4), Brighterdaysahead (3/1), and the defending champion Golden Ace (6/1) – not all of whom are expected to run, as both Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead could take up alternative engagements in the Mares’ Hurdle won by Lossiemouth in both 2024 and 2025.

PONIROS, rated a useful 91 on the Flat when trained by William Haggas, stunned the racing world when winning last season’s Grade 1 JCB Triumph Hurdle at odds of 100/1 on his hurdles debut, beating the very smart Lulamba by a neck. He proved that no fluke when runner-up to Lulamba in the Grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree the following month, then shaped very well indeed after an absence of more than seven months when third to the race-fit Brighterdaysahead on unsuitably heavy ground in the Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown early last month.

With the Cheltenham going expected to be nearer Good to Soft next Tuesday, conditions should be perfect for PONIROS (above). If he is within striking distance going to the final flight there is a good chance that his Flat speed will come to the fore and he may well land the spoils, so the 10/1 still on offer represents a solid each-way bet.

With so many horses holding multiple entries at the meeting it is no easy task selecting anything this far out, but should they run, others of interest on the opening day include Kopek Des Bordes (Willie Mullins) in the Arkle Novice Chase, Grand Geste (Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith) in the National Hunt Chase, Gordon Elliott’s course specialist Pied Piper in the Ultima Handicap Chase, and Barbizon (Gordon Elliott) in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

DAY TWO – Wednesday March 11th

Although he seems all the rage and rightly garnered rave reviews following his scintillating win at last month’s Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown, I’ll be taking on the likely hot favourite Majborough in the Grade 1 BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase. I am more than hopeful that last year’s winner MARINE NATIONALE (Barry Connell) can defend his title if he comes anywhere close to the form that saw him slam the outstanding Jonbon by 18 lengths in the race twelve months ago.

Yes, MARINE NATIONALE (above) was beaten 19 lengths by Majborough at Leopardstown last month, but that came on very heavy ground that forced Connell to think long and hard as to whether or not he should let his stable star take his chance. He decided to roll the dice as the 9yo needed match practice following his only other start this term, that desperately unlucky half-length second to Solness at the Christmas meeting at Leopardstown. Majborough’s jumping went to pieces over the final two fences of the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham last March, and while he is a much better animal now, there is still a niggling doubt about his fencing, something that isn’t a concern at Cheltenham for MARINE NATIONALE (2/1) who put in an exemplary round to win this race last year. The better ground than Leopardstown should be a big leveller.

Others that I will be seriously considering investing in on Day Two of the meeting include Western Fold (Gordon Elliott) in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, Bunting (Willie Mullins) in the old Coral Cup – although he has an alternative engagement in the County Hurdle – and Jazzy Matty (Cian Collins) in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase, a race he also won twelve months ago.

DAY THREE – Thursday 12th March

If GAELIC WARRIOR (Willie Mullins) is sent out to battle against his illustrious stable companion and 4/6 ante-post favourite Fact To File in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase, I’ll be siding with him to turn over the market leader and impressive winner of this race at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.

The pair have already met three times this season: at Punchestown in November, GAELIC WARRIOR (above) narrowly got the better of the argument to win the John Durkan Memorial Chase over 2m4, then finished nine lengths in front of Fact To File when beaten a short-head in that stunning three-way photo for the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Fact To File gained his revenge over three miles at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival, but GAELIC WARRIOR raced a little too freely that day and I believe that coming back to the stiff Cheltenham 2m5f will be right up his street, so the 6/4 NRNB offered by many major firms looks worth taking in the hope that Rich & Susannah Ricci’s exciting gelding runs here instead of the 3m2f Gold Cup.

Among a number of other horses I am looking closely at on day three of the ‘Greatest Show On Turf’, Gordon Elliott’s still unexposed Honesty Policy is of serious interest in the Stayers Hurdle, Slade Steel (Henry De Bromhead) should go well in the Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase, and at a very big price, the Eric McNamara-trained Millstream Lady should outrun her odds in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final.

DAY FOUR – Friday 13th March

Punters beware: The final day of the Cheltenham Festival is Friday 13th!

This year’s Grade 1 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup could be the most open renewal in living memory. At the time of writing they are currently betting 6/1 the field in the ante-post markets, There is no outstanding candidate. As I mentioned earlier, I hope Gaelic Warrior goes instead for the shorter Ryanair Chase on the Thursday, but if he runs in this he will still be thereabouts. Jango Baie (Nicky Henderson) outstayed his rivals to land the Arkle Trophy here over two miles last year, but finished off very strongly when only beaten half a length in fourth in that breathtaking King George VI Chase. He looks as though he will stay the extra two furlongs on this stiffer track.

I think this track might suit the ‘King George’ hero The Jukebox Man (Ben Pauling) even better than Kempton and he could be a big danger to all, while the dual former champion Galopin Des Champs (Willie Mullins) cannot be written off despite losing his crown here twelve months ago to Inothewayurthinking (Gavin Cromwell). The latter has run dismally on all starts this term but the betting markets have reflected a surge of interest in him in the last few days and his odds have tumbled from around 16/1 to 15/2. Still, I couldn’t back him on what we’ve seen so far this season.

Grey Dawning (Dan Skelton) hasn’t done enough to convince me he’s a Gold Cup winner in waiting and is one to oppose (unless it comes up heavy ground), Haiti Couleurs) is a very likeable horse but might lack the class necessary to win this (although he should go well), but Jimmy Mangan’s Cotswold Chase winner Spillane’s Tower looks overpriced at around 14/1 and could go very well indeed having shown his liking for the track when beating L’Homme Presse here in January.

In a truly open affair, my suggestion at this stage is AFFORDALE FURY (Noel Meade), who was so impressive when making all to win the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting, then led until pulled up quickly after four out in the Irish Gold Cup back there in February. It transpired that the 8yo had gone lame, so Donagh Meyler did the right thing in quickly pulling out of the race. On his only previous visit to Cheltenham AFFORDALE FURY (above) finished a superb one-length second at odds of 150/1 in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle of 2023 so we know he can handle the track.

Forgive him his latest run, and on his previous defeat of I Am Maximus and course specialist Galopin Des Champs, AFFORDALE FURY has a big chance, so 33/1 each-way NRNB with many big firms looks a sporting wager.

Earlier on the Friday, should he be directed to the William Hill County Hurdle then Bunting (Willie Mullins) would be of serious interest, with Joseph O’Brien’s Puturhandstogether as a lively alternative. I’ll be with Paul Nicholls’ No Drama This End to repel the Irish raiders in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Ben Pauling-trained Fiercely Proud go very well in the ‘getting out stakes’, the final race of the meeting, the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.

Whatever you choose to back, I hope you have a thrilling four days, and that all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

Paul Alster has broadcast and reported on the British racing industry for four decades as a commentator, journalist, TV and radio presenter, betting correspondent, SP Returner, tipster and form analyst, among other things.