Girl power to rule in Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Nine of the last fourteen Group 1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winners have been fillies, including two in the last three years. That is some achievement when you consider that a significant majority of the runners in all renewals have been colts. Given those stats, the girls could well be set to strike again at ParisLongchamp on Sunday in a fascinating renewal of Europe’s greatest middle-distance race, writes Paul Alster.
The current ante-post betting for the mile-and-a-half championship places Aidan O’Brien’s star three-year-old filly Minnie Hauk against the high-class French four-year-old filly Aventure, trained by Christophe Ferland. Ahead of the final declarations, Minnie Hauk is offered at a top price 4/1 favourite, just half a point bigger than her French rival.
Unbeaten this term after wins in the Cheshire Oaks, the Group 1 Betfred Oaks at Epsom in June, the Group 1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh in July, and most recently the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks at York in August, Minnie Hauk, a daughter of Frankel, will be taking on colts for the first time this season and arguably faces a much stiffer test against the boys than anything she has encountered thus far. Testing underfoot conditions are another challenge for the Ballydoyle-based filly and it would be a tremendous effort if she rattles up the nap hand of wins this term. I think she may just be found wanting.
Aventure, runner-up in last season’s Group 1 Prix Vermeille prior to running a cracker to chase home Bluestocking in the Arc a few weeks later, has been trained for this race all season and delighted connections when going one better than twelve months ago when cosily beating this season’s French Oaks winner Gezora in the Prix Vermeille four weeks ago. She would be favourite in my book on that effort and I will be surprised if Gezora can turn the form around. She will handle the ground and should prove a tough nut to crack.
The Japanese dream of winning this great race has looked set to come to fruition a number of times over the last thirty years, but time and again they have been thwarted by agonising fractions. Neutral observers would delight in a victory for Japan and this weekend they have a number of solid chances, none more so than this year’s Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord, who defied many pundits by producing a great recent effort to win on soft ground over the course and distance, beating the Aga Khan Studs’ Daryz by a short-head in Group 3 company. The runner-up is back for more and both horses have to tackle the two furlong longer trip on soft ground for the first time – it was very firm ground when Croix Du Nord landed the Japanese Derby – so both have something to prove but are well worth their respective places in the line-up.
Japan may also be represented by the progressive four-year-old Byzantine Dream, winner over the course and distance last time in the Group 2 Prix Foy where he beat last season’s Arc fourth Sosie by half a length. The runner-up may improve for that first start in three months and turn the form around, and trainer Andre Fabre knows exactly what is need to win this event having landed the prize a remarkable eight times since Trempolino in 1987, his latest success being with Waldgeist back in 2019.
The third likely Japanese contender is Alohi Alii, very lightly raced and off the mark last time on just his fourth start when beating the talented Rashabar over ten furlongs in a Deauville Group 2. He has plenty to prove going up two furlongs in trip and significantly in class and might be outclassed.
The Horse Racing Network’s Izzy Philips has long been sweet on Ralph Beckett’s filly Kalpana, a 14/1 shot who has been beaten in all four starts so far this term but has never run a bad race, including when pushing the high-class Calandagan all the way in the ‘King George’ at Ascot in July. Her latest second to Giavelottto in the Group 3 September Stakes on the All-Weather track at Kempton very much had the feel of teeing her up for Paris, and having shown her liking for soft ground when landing the Group 1 Qipco British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes last October on very easy ground, Kalpana is one for the short list for last year’s winning owner-trainer-jockey team.
David O’Meara’s Estrange, representing the Cheveley Park Stud, is a smart filly who will be better suited by the soft ground than the fast conditions when runner-up to Minnie Hauk at York last time. She is a potential improver and is lightly raced for her age so a place is not at all out of the question,
Five days ahead of the big event, I believe the each-way value might lie with 33/1 shot QUISISANA, trained by Francis-Herni Graffard, a five-year-old mare who seems to have really come into her own of late and took her form to a new level when completing a four-timer in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August. This daughter of Le Havre is out of a Sea The Stars mare and has won at 1m4f in the past, and with her dam being a half-sister to a Group 1 2m4f Flat winner there is stamina in abundance in her pedigree to go along with the pace she showed when leaving Survie and co well behind at Deauville last time over ten furlongs.
I think this mare could have gone under the radar. She represents a top yard and is getting better and better, and while this is undoubtedly a much tougher task than anything she has faced before, there was something about the ease of her most recent win that suggested to me she would not be the least bit out of place in the Arc. I won’t be the least bit surprised on Sunday afternoon if Quisisana makes it three wins in the last four years for the fairer sex.
Paul Alster has broadcast and reported on the British racing industry for almost four decades as a commentator, journalist, presenter, betting correspondent, SP Returner, tipster and form analyst, among other things.