Notable Speech looks pick of British & Irish Breeders’ Cup raiders
This year’s eagerly anticipated Breeders’ Cup meeting takes place in the United States on Friday 30th and Saturday 31st October. As ever, it promises to provide us with loads of exhilarating racing and the real possibility of a number of British and Irish victories along the way, writes Paul Alster.
Keeneland, Kentucky, is the venue for two days of outstanding competition, during which the strong challenge from the British Isles will focus on the turf races. The dirt events are very much the domain of the home team. The first big chance for the visitors appears to lie with the very talented juvenile filly Libertango, trained by George Boughey in Newmarket, who goes in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Billy Loughnane has forged a fine alliance with this rangy daughter of No Nay Never, who won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and then landed the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York in August before finishing a fine runner-up to the outstanding Sun Goddess in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at HQ almost five weeks ago. If she is able to run to that same level, then Libertango could very well justify favouritism and get the British & Irish challenge off to a flyer.
A win for Libertango earlier on the card is likely to further reduce the already prohibitive odds for Aidan O’Brien’s brilliant Sun Goddess to land the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, a race for which she is currently a red-hot 4/5 favourite despite the presence of two other last-time out- European Group 1 winners. Star French trainer Francis Henri Graffard runs the impressive Longchamp Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner Amusingly, while Joseph O’Brien is not without a chance of landing the spoils with Green Empress, winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac at the same Longchamp ‘Arc’ meeting.
However, if Sun Empress arrives in the same form as her latest defeat of Libertango at Newmarket, or her previous more than six length defeat of Green Empress at the Curragh, she is going to be very hard indeed to beat. The only possible chink in her armour is the mile, as she has generally raced over six furlongs with the exception being her penultimate win over seven furlongs. On an easy track such as Keeneland though, most racing observers feel her stamina won’t be overly tested and that with a clear run she will probably come home in front to crown a stellar juvenile campaign.
The main action will be on Saturday when a host of international stars – both equine and human – compete over nine top-class races. Five of those races are on dirt and are of little real interest to European racing fans, but the second race on the card. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint should get the bookies’ tills tinkling as Donnacha O’Brien’s high-class July Cup and Flying Five hero Comanche Brave takes on local star Bacio (pictured above), trained by Wesley Ward, a brilliant winner this summer both at Royal Ascot and at York in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes where he burnt off the opposition with blistering early pace and never came back to them.
There could be more of the same from Bacio on Saturday, but at a very big price don’t rule out a bold bid from the 2024 winner of this race Starlust, trained by Ralph Beckett. He will love the fast ground and the tight track, and was beaten little more than a length at Ascot by Bacio, so a repeat of that effort would give the 50/1 shot a real squeak despite a poor draw out wide.
Andrew Balding’s superb Blue Bolt (pictured above) will bid to extend her unbeaten seasonal sequence to seven in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, her main market rival being old adversary Precise, trained by Aidan O’Brien. Stepping up from a mile for the first time to this tight nine-and-a-half furlongs will test the Juddmonte Farms-owned star, but as long as her season hasn’t taken a toll on her she will probably get the better of Precise once again. Willy McCreery’s Jancis is a talented sort and went very close on her North American debut at Woodbine last month when she might just have needed the outing after her summer break. On her second to Blue Bolt at Royal Ascot in June she is entitled to serious each-way consideration.
Third is the 2024 Breeders Cup Mile, Charlie Appleby’s Notable Speech made no mistake at Del Mar twelve months ago and will be a short price to retain his crown having won three Group 1 events already this term; the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May, the City Of York Stakes at the Ebor meeting in August,; and most recently the Woodbine Mile in Canada. Fast ground and a sharp track are ideal for the 5yo who for many people will be the best bet on the card. Miguel Clement’s Deterministic, second to Notable Speech at Woodbine seven weeks ago tries his luck again and is the best of the American runners, while both Aidan O’Brien’s recent Group 1 winner True Love, and the William Haggas-trained Lake Forest, runner-up to Notable Speech at York, will have their supporters too.
The final turf race of the two-day meeting is the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Turf itself, run over a mile-and-a-half and featuring last year’s shock 28/1 winner Ethical Diamond (pictured above), trained by Willie Mullins. He shaped well when second to Sir Mark Prescott’s Tiffany here seven weeks ago and the fast ground will again be in his favour, so it is somewhat surprising to see the gelding relatively unconsidered in the market at around 16/1. Tiffany will re-oppose Ethical; Diamond and is a very rare runner at this meeting for her veteran handler. She is reported to be in great shape and is no forlorn hope.
Fellow Irish star trainer Aidan O’Brien has a particularly strong hand here with the high-class Diamond Necklace installed 2/1 favourite following her excellent third to Daryz in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe earlier in the month, but how much might that race have taken out of her? Stable companion Benvenuto Cellini, winner of the Irish Derby after the debacle in the stalls at Epsom a few weeks earlier, was only ninth in the ‘Arc’ but better is seemingly expected from him this time.
However, after 1m2f Group 1 wins in Munich and in the Irish Champion Stakes, Jessica Harrington’s Hotazhell is well worth a second glance having hit a rich vein of form and being completely unexposed at this longer trip. He appeals as potentially one of the best each-way bets of the meeting.
Paul Alster has broadcast and reported on the British racing industry for four decades as a commentator, journalist, TV and radio presenter, betting correspondent, SP Returner, tipster and form analyst, among other things.