Three horses to follow for the autumn campaign
We have enjoyed a fine British summer, loads of sunshine, relatively high temperatures, and with the exception of one downpour in the middle of Glorious Goodwood, fairly quick conditions since the British classics in the spring. Now, inevitably, things are changing, and punters should beware as the pendulum is set to swing in favour of horses who need easy underfoot conditions to be seen at their best, writes Paul Alster.
More often than not there has been a variety of ground through the British summer racing season, but this year has seen a sustained dry spell leaving owners and trainers frustrated, not being able to race those horses for whom soft ground – or at least the avoidance of a quick surface – is essential. The patience of such connections is set to be rewarded now as the heavens have darkened and rain has finally arrived for much of the British Isles. The long range forecast suggests an unsettled September, music to the ears of those connections who have been tearing their hair out paying bills while horses remain in their stables at no little expense.
Here are three horses that I feel are worth following during these final months of the 2025 season, especially when the mud is flying:
GETHIN – Trained by Owen Burrows, this big, powerful colt by Ghaiyyaath was a late maturing juvenile last season and only made his racecourse debut in October when surging clear approaching the final furlong on heavy ground to a visually impressive six-length success. The third and fourth horses that day have both won since and are rated in the 80s. His only other racecourse appearance came at Newbury in April in a 1m2f novice event on good ground when sent off third-favourite at 7/2. Despite running green and racing too exuberantly through the first half of the race, he still proved far too good for Saddadd (now rated 101), running away from Roger Varian’s subsequent London Gold Cup winner to score with plenty in hand.
After that Newbury win there was talk of the Derby, but Gethin met with a setback and connections have been clear about the 3yo’s need for easy conditions for his return. He still holds ambitious Group 1 entries in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Champion Stakes, and despite his lack of experience he would not be without a chance at that level. If his sights are lowered a little to Group 2 or 3 company, GETHIN could well prove well worth following for the remainder of this campaign. He is an exciting prospect.
KIND OF BLUE – Trained by James Fanshawe, this 4yo colt by Blue Point has only raced once on soft ground yet such was the impression he made that day last October when powering to victory through the muddy ground in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot that he should be well worth waiting for when he gets similar conditions for the first time this season. This is not a ‘one-trick pony’. Fanshawe’s charge is very talented on decent ground as he showed last September when failing by only a head to beat Montassib in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock.
So far this season things haven’t really gone to plan. He was odds-on for his seasonal return at Chantilly in June but reared up as the stalls opened and trailed in last of nine after all chance had been lost. He was favourite for the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle a few weeks later but never looked at ease on the artificial surface at Gosforth Park and only beat one home. There were signs last time out at the Curragh though that KIND OF BLUE is running himself into shape. He showed much more of his old spark when keeping on in third behind Buccanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint, and now that the ground is starting to ease you can expect plenty more improvement to come in the final two months of this campaign, with an imminent repeat bid at Haydock for the Sprint Cup quite likely, as well as a spirited defence of his crown at Ascot in October.
EXPANDED – Trained by Aidan O’Brien, this 3yo Wootton Bassett colt promised a great deal after a highly unconventional juvenile career that lasted just seven days. Despite being slow to jump away on debut in a seven furlong maiden at the Curragh on October 5, 2024, he stayed on strongly through the final two furlongs to get up close home to score by a neck from First Wave. Remarkably, O’Brien stepped him up to the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket just a week later and he duly ran a marvellous race on soft ground to be beaten just a neck by the previous Group 1 winner Shadow Of Light.
On the back of that brief but impressive 2yo campaign, the Ballydoyle-based colt was expected by many (myself included) to be a leading light of his generation in this season’s classics, but he looked rusty and could only finish ninth behind Ruling Court in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May on good ground, before finishing last of twelve behind the very impressive Field Of Gold in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh three weeks later on a similar surface. EXPANDED hasn’t been seen since then. I take the view that connections have been waiting for easy underfoot conditions similar to those he encountered in the Dewhurst Stakes last October, before running this still unexposed colt again. He holds a host of Group 1 entries, but may start his autumn campaign in the Group 2 Solonoway Stakes at Leopardstown’s ‘Champions’ meeting on September 13. If the ground comes up soft he could well get the show straight back on the road.
Paul Alster has broadcast and reported on the British racing industry for almost four decades as a commentator, journalist, presenter, betting correspondent, SP Returner, tipster and form analyst, among other things.